Aaron Krowne, a math whiz and economic blogger, writes that the true unemployment rate in the U.S. is between 9% and 13%—more than twice the official headline of 4.5% that was recently announced—due to factors such as the shuffling of unemployment categories and the enormous prisoner population in the US (2.2 million).

What does this mean? I think that the recent surge in the value of the U.S. dollar is inflated and temporary, based on shoddy statistics. While 4.5% may be a nice number to party about for the new year, it’s not going to hold for long.

Some commodities may still be in for a downward spike, such as oil (crude) and copper, according to Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis. Gold and silver are still looking good, in spite of this week’s setback, however.