Politics, Programming and Possibilities
27 Feb
The Chinese and U.S. stock markets felt some big losses today–almost 9% in China and 3% state-side. These are the kind of losses that you hear about every 5 to 10 years. But is it over, or just beginning?
In December, I predicted that the stock market “may be able to maintain its speculative climb in to insanity for a month or two, but sooner or later things are going to come down.” I believe they are now on their way. If I’m right, then we may see a few turbulent swings up and down, but the trend itself will be all downward.
The reason, summarized by Mike Whitney in The Second Great Depression, is this:
December’s figures indicate that foreign investment is drying up and the world is no longer eager to purchase America’s lavish debt. The only thing the Federal Reserve can do is raise interest rates to attract foreign capital or let the dollar fall in value. The problem, of course, is that if the Fed raises rates, the real estate market will collapse even faster which will strangle consumer spending and shrivel GDP. In other words, we are at the brink of two separate but related crises; an economic crisis and a currency crisis. That means that the unsuspecting American people are likely to be ground between the two mill-wheels of hyperinflation and shrinking growth.
As the saying goes, we’re stuck between a rock and a hard place. As I mentioned in my first article, diversify in to gold and foreign currency if you have the resources. It’s going to be a wild ride, gravity and all.
8 Responses for "Market Correction or New Trend?"
Along with the market, gold and silver prices also plummeted today. While the market will most likely continue to drop, I’m guessing that gold/silver will start increasing in value as foreign markets and banks continue to abandon the dollar.
Yes, as a European living and working in Japan I feel pretty safe.
Nonetheless I’m very curious what will happen, after the things I’ve read myself I can only agree with you that it will become a bumpy ride.
The current situation affects much more than just the stock market, it will affect a lot of lives and future outcomes. Hyperinflation for example can wipe out the entire upper+middle class and give rise to radical alternative powers (Germany, 1920 - 1945)
Some of my aunts and uncles tend to agree with you, that the Utah housing market is destined to crash. They are selling their homes and renting. I think these beliefs are unfounded and speculative, it’s nothing more than a wager by all of you. I think one obvious trend is the shortage of quality workers in the US (contrast that with other countries that are struggling to find jobs for everyone). I think we’ll see wages pushed higher to compensate for the shortage of housing (California is an example of this).
GW has been saying all along that we need “foreign workers” in the US, and everybody second guesses this because they think he is going after the Mexican vote, when that doesn’t really make a whole lot of sense, especially at this point in his presidency. You guys are always talking about what GW has to gain with the Iraq war (Halliburton) but the US economy stands to make him a WHOLE lot more money, trillions of dollars, millions directly into his pocket.
I think monetary policy is much more complicated than can be assumed, and it is a competitive field, we can’t be sharing our secrets. But know that in the US we have some really good economists working for the federal reserve, and we have a very strong and motivated workforce. I spent a lot of elective credits on Economics, it is really fascinating. I have been working a lot lately and it is really paying off. I’m going to sit tight and ride this one out.
Here is my wager. The economy will tank 6 months into the Hillary Clinton / Barack Obama presidency (by no fault of their own, just dirty politics). They will capitalize on it to sell national health care and tax increases to the public, moving us another step closer to Socialism. Mark my word.
BTW, looks like the market is up today. Obviously a lot of investor confidence, after what happened yesterday.
Our economy is going to crash because:
1.we invest our resources in defense and other non wealth building activities;
2. We have over produced the dollar in relationship to our current economic needs and we are fortunate that the US dollar is used as the default world currency, other wise we would have experienced hyperinflation a while back; however other nations are abandoning the dollar as the currency of choice for international transactions. Once other market economics decide the dollar is no longer of value, we will see reactions that will cause panic among the investing class and bad decision making by our policy makers.
Look for a world currency to come out of the rumble.
3.What role does debt play in an economy that is close to going in a downward spiral? Debt includes the under funding of pension obligations, the under funding of Medicare obligations and the borrowing to finance a life style.
Folks, our current dollar is worth four cents (four cents!!!) on the Federal Reserve-created dollar when that hellish creation was instituted in 1913. We’ve let our politicians devaluate our currency through rampant inflationary spending, and now the FRN is worth 4 cents compared to what it used to buy.
Ridiculous.
Quote:
We invest our resources in defence and other non wealth building activities.
I find this point to be a bit of an oxymoron. It seems to me that some of the greatest technical innovations of the past 100 years have come out of military spending - the internet being a prime example.
[...] Personally, I’m not going crazy with fear, but as I’ve previously written, I decided to hedge my bets a little by investing in gold and gold stocks. We’ll find out soon if that was wisdom or overzealous worry. [...]
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